Hungary's Orban defies EU partners and meets Putin again in Moscow

Hungarian Prime Minister Viktor Orban visited the Kremlin on Friday, shaking hands with Vladimir Putin just days before Russia plans to negotiate with the United States about ending the war in Ukraine. For Orban, this crucial visit to Moscow is about more than diplomacy; it's about his political survival.

With Hungarian parliamentary elections approaching in April and polls indicating that his Fidesz party could lose power for the first time in 15 years, Orban hopes that a mix of Russian energy deals and his closeness to the Trump-Putin talks can improve his declining election prospects.

Putin appeared eager to support his most dependable European ally. "We are aware of your balanced position on the situation in Ukraine," he told Orban in comments aired on Russian state television. This phrase is a polite way to reference Orban's ongoing efforts to undermine NATO and EU unity against Russia since the invasion in 2022.

The Hungarian leader, who calls himself a champion of "peace" while blocking European attempts to assist Ukraine, has become Putin's most valuable asset in the European Union. While other European leaders see Russian aggression, Orban sees business opportunities and political gains.

Putin wasted no time expressing his thanks. He acknowledged Orban for suggesting Budapest as a possible site for a Russia-US summit with President Donald Trump. Putin disclosed that Trump had quickly embraced the idea. "Trump immediately said: 'We have good relations with Hungary, you have good relations with Viktor, and I do too, so I suggest this option.' Of course, we happily agreed," Putin remarked, indicating that this decision was nearly finalized.

The idea of a Budapest "peace summit" was first suggested last month but was quickly put on hold when the Russian side refused to soften Putin's demands for ending the war. Those demands would essentially force Ukraine to surrender significant territory and sovereignty.

Nevertheless, just proposing the summit served Orban's interests. A Trump-Putin summit in Budapest, even if it never happens, allows him to position himself as an essential diplomatic player. For a leader facing a significant election challenge in over a decade, the optics alone could be politically valuable.

The timing is noteworthy. Orban last visited Moscow in July 2024, and his return comes as his political situation at home has sharply declined. Serious polls now indicate that he might actually lose for the first time since he consolidated power 15 years ago.

Orban framed Friday’s visit as part of a strategy to ensure Russian energy supplies for the winter—not just for Hungary, but also for Slovakia and Serbia. This story is designed to appeal to his domestic audience: Orban as the sensible leader protecting Hungarian families from freezing while idealistic EU officials play geopolitical games.

"Without deals with the US and Russia, heating prices would triple next month," Orban warned his constituents, presenting his Moscow meetings as a necessity rather than a political decision.

However, the situation is more complicated. Hungary gets over 80% of its oil and gas and 100% of its nuclear fuel from Russia. Hungarian trade contributes about $5 billion each year to the Russian budget—money that supports Putin's war effort, even as Orban claims to advocate for peace.

Earlier this month in Washington, Orban received an exemption from US sanctions on Russian fuel, but with one crucial condition: the exemption only lasts as long as he remains in power. This clause gives Trump leverage over Orban while offering him another reason to tell voters he is essential.

Ironically, deals Orban made in Washington to purchase US liquefied natural gas and American nuclear fuel mean Hungary will actually buy less from Russia. This could potentially annoy his hosts in Moscow. However, if Putin was upset, he did not show it. The Russian president recognizes that keeping Orban in power is more important than any individual energy contract.

Hungary is facing intense EU pressure to end all Russian energy imports by 2027, joining the rest of Europe in cutting economic ties with Moscow. Orban has made it clear he has no intention of complying, and any agreement reached in Moscow will be used to justify ongoing defiance of Brussels.

This pattern has repeated throughout Russia's war on Ukraine. Orban has consistently challenged EU efforts to stop Russian oil and gas imports, blocked sanctions packages, delayed military aid to Ukraine, and accused European leaders of "war-mongering" for supporting Ukraine's defense.

In a letter this week to European Commission President Ursula von der Leyen, Orban called for immediate, unconditional peace talks and urged the EU to start direct negotiations with the Kremlin. He reiterated his objections to additional EU funding for Ukraine and rejected using frozen Russian assets for Ukrainian defense—positions that align perfectly with Moscow's interests.

Last week, speaking to Hungarian state radio, Orban claimed, "Europe has decided to go to war in Ukraine," reframing reality by ignoring the fact that Russia invaded Ukraine, not the other way around.

Orban has strongly endorsed Trump's controversial 28-point peace plan, which critics argue would reward Russian aggression by forcing Ukraine to give up territory. During frantic diplomacy after the plan emerged, the Orban government and pro-Orban media accused EU leaders of "war-mongering" for trying to adapt the plan to address Ukraine's valid concerns.

The Hungarian prime minister has cast himself as the lone voice of reason in a Europe he describes as reckless and bloodthirsty. This narrative resonates with his domestic supporters but infuriates his NATO and EU partners.

Joining Orban and Putin in the Kremlin were senior Russian officials, including Putin aide Yuri Ushakov, who is part of Russia's team negotiating with the United States. The presence of such high-level negotiators at what was described as an energy meeting suggests the talks went beyond just natural gas contracts.

It's clear who Putin prefers to win Hungary's April election. At the Valdai Forum in Sochi on September 29, Putin praised Orban personally and celebrated "nationally-oriented political forces" gaining ground in Europe. "If these forces in Europe continue to grow stronger, then Europe will be reborn," Putin stated, making his hope explicit that leaders like Orban, who prioritize national sovereignty over collective European action, will multiply across the continent.

Orban represents Putin's ideal European leader: democratically elected, providing a façade of legitimacy for Russian positions, yet willing to prioritize bilateral ties with Moscow over European unity. His possible defeat in April would significantly undermine Russian influence in the EU.

That's why another diplomatic "victory" for Orban benefits both men. A major energy deal announced in Moscow, pictures of Orban being treated as an important statesman by Putin, and continuing to be viewed as a key intermediary for Trump-Putin talks—all contribute to Orban’s narrative that he is essential for Hungary's prosperity and international stability.

As one analyst pointed out, arranging a "deal" in Moscow doesn't seem difficult. Both sides want it for their own reasons. Putin wants Orban to win re-election, and Orban needs to convince Hungarian voters that he can deliver real benefits through his close connection with Moscow.

The details matter less than the appearance. Even if the actual terms of any energy agreement are modest, Orban will return to Budapest claiming victory—lower heating prices secured, Hungarian interests protected, and peace advanced—while his critics complain about compromising European values.

But while Orban seeks to be seen as a bridge between East and West, troubling questions remain. Can you truly be a promoter of peace while funding the aggressor's war effort with $5 billion in annual trade? Can you claim to represent Hungarian interests while defying the EU that provides billions in subsidies? Can you be a trustworthy NATO ally while acting as Putin's most effective advocate?

For Orban, these contradictions are not flaws; they are essential to his brand. He thrives on challenging conventional wisdom, opposing European elites, and forging an independent path—though that path often leads directly to the Kremlin.

As he faces the toughest election of his career, Orban is betting that Hungarian voters will prioritize his practicality over principles, his deals over ideals, and his willingness to work with Putin over the disapproval from his partners.

The outcome of this gamble will become clear in April. But standing in the Kremlin on Friday, shaking Putin's hand and discussing energy contracts while Russian missiles continued to strike Ukrainian cities, one thing was obvious: Viktor Orban has selected his side.

And Putin could not be more pleased. 

The Hungarian parliamentary elections are scheduled for April 2025. Recent polling shows a tight race, with opposition parties gaining ground against Orban's Fidesz party for the first time in 15 years.